Dario Sabaghi
The New Arab / December 2, 2025
Pope Leo’s visit may be one of the last moments of calm before the storm, as Israel threatens to reignite a war on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah.
Pope Leo XIV’s visit to Lebanon might be one of the last moments of calm before the storm, as the country stands on the brink of a new Israeli war.
Israel, frustrated by Beirut’s slow efforts to disarm Hezbollah, is threatening to escalate its attacks to weaken the group’s military capabilities, which it says are being rebuilt.
The fear of a new conflict comes barely a year after a US- and French-brokered ceasefire ended the 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Yet the truce was never entirely reciprocal, as Israel has continued to strike Lebanon on a nearly daily basis.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has recorded over 10,000 Israeli air and ground violations since the ceasefire, with the UN saying Israeli attacks killed at least 127 civilians.
The Israeli army also occupies five positions inside Lebanon and is building a concrete wall south of the Blue Line, which UNIFIL says violates UN Resolution 1701 and Lebanon’s sovereignty.
But fear of a new war ramped up on 23 November with the assassination of Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s chief of staff, deep inside Beirut’s southern suburbs, marking Israel’s first strike in the capital since June.
Following the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel “will not allow Hezbollah to rebuild its power” and expects Lebanon “to fulfil its commitment to disarm Hezbollah”.
Israel readies for war as diplomacy falters
As Israel ratchets up pressure on Lebanon, the diplomatic room for Beirut is shrinking by the day. The government is struggling to contain the situation as it faces Israeli threats, US pressure to disarm Hezbollah, and the group’s refusal to lay down its weapons.
Within this scenario, analysts now view a fresh conflict as increasingly likely, raising the risk that Lebanon could once again be dragged into full-scale war.
A potential Israeli escalation in Lebanon would likely involve “a higher tempo and broader geographic spread of Israeli airstrikes – not only in Lebanon’s south, but more consistently across the Bekaa Valley and potentially Beirut,” said Freddy Khoueiry, global security analyst covering the Middle East and North Africa at RANE Network.
He told The New Arab that if the impasse continues, limited commando raids or localised incursions could become more likely, increasing the risk of renewed confrontation, as Hezbollah would be more inclined to retaliate than show restraint.
Last year’s war with Israel, however, has weakened Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Israel has depleted part of its arsenal, breached its intelligence and security, and killed top senior commanders, including the leader Hassan Nasrallah.
After the ceasefire, Hezbollah has refrained from retaliating to Israeli attacks. But following the assassination of Tabatabai, the group’s new secretary general, Naim Qassem, said Hezbollah has the right to respond to Israel and will “set the timing” for any retaliation.
“Hezbollah would prefer to act on its own terms, rather than be drawn into a war dictated by Israel, setting the tempo and direction,” political and security affairs analyst Ali Rizk told TNA.
“For now, it is likely to continue exercising restraint, but if there is a dramatic escalation, such as large-scale bombardment or a full-scale attack, Hezbollah’s calculations could change.”
However, it’s unlikely that Israel would be able to disarm Hezbollah by force, said Issam Kayssi, a research analyst at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, as he believes Israel lacks a clear plan.
“At best, Israel can limit or degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities, but fully disarming them through force is not possible,” he told TNA.
Lebanon’s government is stuck in the middle
The only actor who could disarm the group via political means is the Lebanese government.
Since taking office, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have committed to disarming all militias to maintain the state’s monopoly on arms.
In August, the government welcomed the army’s plan for disarmament, without, however, setting a deadline.
The Lebanese army has begun implementing its plan. In October, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the Lebanese army has removed nearly 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and more than 205,000 pieces of unexploded ordnance from the south over the past year. The army has also boosted its presence in the south.
Meanwhile, the US is targeting Hezbollah’s funding, reporting that over $1 billion has been transferred this year from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Quds Force to Hezbollah through money exchanges and sanctioning those who facilitated it.
Lebanon’s central bank has also issued a circular that forbids banks from doing business with Hezbollah-linked institutions like Al-Qard al-Hassan.
On the diplomatic front, President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam have expressed willingness to negotiate with Israel to avoid escalation and find a diplomatic solution, but Israel currently shows no interest in talks.
Raising the stakes, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz last week warned the army will “intervene with force” if Hezbollah isn’t disarmed by the year’s end, echoing a proposed US roadmap.
Nicholas Blanford, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told TNA that since the year-end disarmament deadline won’t be met, Israel is likely to escalate its actions in the coming weeks.
“The Lebanese government is stuck: Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and forcibly doing so could trigger civil strife, yet the government still wants all weapons under state control,” he said. “It is caught between an aggressive Israel, an impatient US administration, and an obstinate Hezbollah.”
The US administration also appears dissatisfied with Beirut. Since January, US envoys Tom Barrack and Morgan Ortagus have negotiated with the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah.
However, in recent weeks, Washington has grown frustrated with what it sees as Lebanon’s cautious approach. In mid-November, Washington cancelled a planned visit of the head of the Lebanese army, Rodolphe Haykal. The cancellation reportedly followed a Lebanese army statement blaming Israel for recent violence but not condemning Hezbollah, drawing objections in Washington.
Khoueiry argues that a tacit US green light, not full backing, is enough for Israel to escalate, and its past willingness to proceed despite Washington’s reservations, along with mounting US pressure on Beirut over Hezbollah, “suggests Washington may be less inclined, at least initially, to restrain Israeli actions”.
Kayssi believes it’s up to Israel to convince the Americans that another escalation is worth it, because US President Donald Trump, who has been talking about ‘peace’ in the Middle East, would not welcome a new war that attracts headlines.
“I think he [Trump] wants to shift focus away from the region, maybe toward Ukraine. Still, Israel would need full US backing before launching any escalation like last fall,” he said.
For Israel, a fresh escalation against Hezbollah “is a golden opportunity to get rid of an old nemesis,” Rizk said, particularly now that Syria is no longer part of the Iran-led axis of resistance.
“I think the Israelis see the moment as perfect to get rid of Hezbollah once and for all, and they’ll push their efforts to the maximum, with the Trump administration fully siding with them,” he said.
The assassination of Tabatabai has also given Iran an opportunity to weigh in on Lebanon’s debate over Hezbollah’s disarmament and publicly reaffirm its support for the group.
Following the assassination, Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader on international affairs, said Hezbollah is “more important than bread and water”.
Lebanon’s foreign minister, Youssef Raggi, criticised the remarks as interference in the country’s sovereignty, stressing that decisions on national defence must be made internally. Iran’s IRGC also condemned the killing and called for “revenge” over the killing of Tabatabai.
Blanford said even though Hezbollah’s deterrence value to Iran was shattered by last year’s war, Tehran still sees utility in keeping it militarily strong, and accounts suggest it has taken a more controlling role over the past year as the group reconstitutes itself.
“We’ll have to see how long that lasts and what the longer-term calculations are,” he said. “Ultimately, if you want Hezbollah disarmed peacefully, you need to talk to the Iranians.”
As Lebanon teeters between internal pressures and external threats, the prospect of a new war with Israel looms ever larger.
The assassination of Tabatabai has reignited tensions, and diplomatic and disarmament efforts may not be enough to prevent conflict.
With the clock ticking, the coming weeks could determine whether Lebanon maintains a fragile calm or slides back into war.
Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights
