Democracy Now! / April 17, 2026
Guest: Ali Vaez – senior adviser to the president of the International Crisis Group, where he is the Iran project director
Links: “Trump Has Lost Control of Events in Iran”; “How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare”
President Trump on Thursday repeated his claim that a deal to end the war on Iran is “very close” and that direct talks with Iran could resume in Pakistan as soon as this weekend. Despite the claims, the Pentagon is surging thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, including an additional 6,000 sailors and aviators joining the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier battle group. Around 4,200 others with the Navy and Marines are expected to arrive near the end of the month. Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says “we might be, at some point, returning to a hot war” because the Iranians, too, have “preserved a degree of retaliatory capacity.” The main question on the negotiating table is whether the Iranians, who “have been saying for years that they don’t want nuclear weapons,” will curb their nuclear activity, and if so, whether the U.S. would “be willing to provide them with economic incentives and sanctions relief.”
TRANSCRIPT
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now!, democracynow.org, The War and Peace Report. I’m Amy Goodman.
We begin, looking at the latest on Iran. The stakes could not be higher, as the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has not yet led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the economically vital waterway for economies all over the world.
On Thursday, President Trump repeated his claim a deal to end the war in Iran is “very close” and that direct talks with Iran could resume in Islamabad, Pakistan, as soon as this weekend. This comes after a high-level Pakistani delegation visited Tehran on Wednesday, seeking to lay the groundwork for more negotiations. A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said he remains skeptical of the United States.
ESMAIL BAGHAEI: [translated] It remains to be seen to what extent the other side is truly serious about the claims they’ve made regarding diplomacy. It is the Americans who must prove their seriousness, because they have not only failed to adhere to their commitments many times, but have also fundamentally destroyed the negotiating table.
AMY GOODMAN: The Pentagon, meanwhile, is surging thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, including an additional 6,000 sailors and aviators joining the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier battle group. During a news briefing at the Pentagon Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed some of his comments to the Iranians.
DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH: We are reloading with more power than ever before and better intelligence — even more importantly, better intelligence — than ever before, as you expose yourself with your movement to our watchful eye. We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation and on your energy industry. We’d rather not have to do it, but we’re ready to go at the command of our president and at the push of a button.
AMY GOODMAN: For more on the latest developments in a very pivotal moment for this war, we’re joined by Ali Vaez. He’s in Geneva, in Switzerland, senior adviser to the president of the International Crisis Group, where he’s also the Iran project director. He wrote a piece earlier this month for The New York Times headlined “Trump Has Lost Control of Events in Iran.”
Ali Vaez, thanks for joining us again. Do you feel that way still? What is your understanding of talks again happening in Pakistan? The significance of the Pakistani delegation going to Tehran?
ALI VAEZ: It’s great to see you.
Yes, I do believe that the reason the president wanted an off-ramp was because he did realize that he had lost control of this war, that he went in with unrealistic expectations that this would be easy, and in a matter of a few days the Iranians would fold and would capitulate to his terms. Five weeks later, he’s nowhere closer to Iranian capitulation than was the case at the beginning of this war, and, in fact, now the Iranians even have more leverage in the form of their control over the Strait of Hormuz.
My understanding is that the talks in Islamabad didn’t really go that well, because neither side was willing to make the necessary concessions that are required to reach a compromise, because they both believe that they still have the upper hand. And the Pakistani mediators are now trying to negotiate some sort of a framework, a memorandum of understanding, that would at least outline what are the key areas that they would have to negotiate. So, with that, they would be able to extend the ceasefire. That’s the objective, which at this point remains a very moderate ambition, I would say.
AMY GOODMAN: So, can you respond to Pete Hegseth saying the U.S. is “locked and loaded” and this back-and-forth between the president of the United States, President Trump, and the pope, Pope Leo, who’s on a trip through Africa, who first said, you know, “Blessed be the peacemakers,” and then said, “The world is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants, yet it’s held together by a multitude of supportive brothers and sisters”?
ALI VAEZ: Well, first of all, I don’t know what the president expects the pope to say, other than talking about peace and not being a warmonger. I mean, it’s really stunning to expect the pope to say anything other than that.
But, look, the reality is, yes, the U.S. might be locked and loaded, and the U.S. is sending more troops to the region. And the Iranians are paying attention to what the U.S. does and not what it says. So, no doubt that we might be, at some point, returning to a hot war.
But the same applies to the Iranians, that they, too, are locked and loaded, and they, too, have demonstrated that they have preserved a degree of retaliatory capacity that would be pretty problematic for the United States. And they still have cards to play. They can still, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, shut down Bab-el-Mandeb, the access to the Red Sea, where Saudi and Emirati oil is being exported to Asia, and that would create a major economic shock for the world and for the United States, as well.
So, yes, both sides still have cards to play. Both sides can still inflict pain on one another. But at the end of the day, they will have to go to the negotiating table and compromise. So why not do it now?
AMY GOODMAN: So, let’s talk about the nuclear program. Hegseth said the War Department will ensure “Iran never has a nuclear weapon, never.” Khamenei, who was assassinated in this joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike at the start of the war, had issued a fatwa forbidding nuclear weapons under Islamic law. However, Iranian officials have openly acknowledged their capacity to build such weapons if they choose. Can you respond to what the back-and-forth is right now, with — President Trump said they are agreeing with the United States. What exactly do you think Iran is agreeing to? And how far will these negotiations, the next round after the first collapse, go?
ALI VAEZ: Look, the Iranians have been saying for years that they don’t want nuclear weapons. The former supreme leader had a religious edict, a fatwa, against nuclear weapons. In the opening pages of the 2015 nuclear deal, the Iranians committed to not developing a nuclear weapon. So, that is not a new thing. Then, that’s not a new concession to President Trump.
The question has always been: Would the Iranians accept to curb their nuclear activities for a long period of time and subject them to international monitoring? And in return, would the U.S. be willing to provide them with economic incentives and sanctions relief?
We had a deal along those lines. The president withdrew from it and now has difficulty getting back into a deal that does the same thing. You know, we’re now talking about the administration asking for restrictions on Iran’s enrichment program for 20 years. The most important restrictions in the 2015 nuclear deal were for 15 years. So, did we go through all of this, maximum pressure that really devastated the Iranian middle class and now two rounds of war in less than a year, costing the United States hundreds of billions of dollars, to add just an additional five years on restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program? It really doesn’t make any sense.
But again, at the end of the day, if the United States wants Iran to have a peaceful nuclear program, the best solution is a negotiated agreement which would reestablish international monitoring over that program and would basically impose certain restrictions on it, not completely shut it down, because that would be a humiliating outcome for the Iranians. And, you know, Amy, unfair deals beget unfaithful deal-makers. And you definitely don’t want that with a country that has already learned how to enrich uranium and has what it takes to develop nuclear weapons, if the political will is there.
AMY GOODMAN: Ali Vaez, in a moment, we’re going to go to Beirut. But I wanted to ask you how the 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will impact the second round of negotiations between Iran and the United States.
ALI VAEZ: Well, that was a necessary condition for the talks to move forward. But it is not sufficient. As I said, it would require the United States to step aside from maximalist demands. It would require the Iranians to also show flexibility, in order to reach at least a framework agreement. But without a ceasefire in Lebanon, that would not have been possible. So, this is a good development, but it’s not enough to reach a deal.
AMY GOODMAN: And the significance of the House and the Senate not passing a war powers resolution around Iran, as we wrap up?
ALI VAEZ: Well, that clearly demonstrates that this presidency is completely unchecked and the president can wage wars that are illegal, not just according to international law, but even according to U.S. Constitution, because it doesn’t have the consent of Congress. And it’s really a pity that Congress cannot assert its authority in a case where American lives are at stake, in addition to the economic costs for American taxpayers.
AMY GOODMAN: Ali Vaez, I want to thank you very much for being with us, senior adviser to the president of the International Crisis Group, where he’s also the Iran project director. We’ll link to your piece in The New York Times, headlined “Trump Has Lost Control of Events in Iran.” He’s speaking to us from Geneva, Switzerland.
