Barak Ravid
Axios / July 23, 2023
The U.S., Israel and the United Arab Emirates held a meeting in Abu Dhabi last Thursday to discuss plans for Gaza after the war ends, two Israeli officials said.
The meeting suggests Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is beginning to recognize the need for a realistic plan for how Gaza might be governed after the Israel-Hamas war.
Behind the scenes: The Israeli officials said the Emirati foreign minister Abdullah Bin Zayed (ABZ) hosted the meeting.
President Biden’s top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and State Department counsellor Tom Sullivan attended from the U.S. side. Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Netanyahu, attended from the Israeli side.
Two senior Israeli defense officials who have been working on Israel’s proposals for day-after plans for Gaza also travelled with Dermer to Abu Dhabi, the officials said.
A day before the Israelis arrived in Abu Dhabi, the Emiratis laid out their proposals for the day-after the war in an op-ed by ABZ’s special envoy Lana Nusseibeh.
Nusseibeh advocated for deploying a temporary international mission to Gaza. She said this mission would respond to the humanitarian crisis, establish law and order, and lay the groundwork for governance.
The Emirati official separately told the FT on the day of the trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi that the UAE would be ready to be part of such an international force and would put boots on the ground.
Yes, but: She laid out several key conditions.
The international force would have to enter Gaza at the formal invitation of the Palestinian Authority.
The Palestinian Authority would have to conduct meaningful reforms and be led by a new prime minister who is empowered and independent.
The Israeli government would need to allow the Palestinian Authority to have a role in governing Gaza and agree to a political process based on the two-state solution.
The U.S. would have a leadership role in any “day-after” initiative.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s office, the White House and the UAE embassy in Washington declined to comment.
The Emiratis want to be part of a solution in Gaza that will not include Hamas, but also have strong reservations about the current leadership of the Palestinian Authority.
During a meeting in June between several Arab ministers and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, ABZ called the Palestinian leadership “Ali Baba and the 40 thieves.”
The Emiratis told the Biden administration the new Palestinian prime minister, Mohammed Mustafa, was one of Abbas’ confidants and therefore would not be independent and wouldn’t conduct the needed reforms.
The Emiratis pushed for other candidates, including former Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad — an Abbas critic — to be appointed instead.
Friction point: Netanyahu has said he wants the Emiratis to be part of a day-after plan for Gaza.
The Israeli prime minister would like the UAE to send troops, pay for reconstruction and overhaul the Gaza education system in order to “de-radicalize” the population.
But Netanyahu isn’t willing at the moment to end the war. He also rejects any official role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and isn’t willing to resume a political process based on the two-state solution.
Netanyahu’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant presented a Gaza day-after plan months ago that was very similar to the Emirati proposal, but Netanyahu rejected it out of hand.
Israeli officials said Netanyahu is now showing more willingness, at least in private, to support Gallant’s plan and discuss it with the U.S. and the UAE.
“Netanyahu attacked Gallant’s plan and blocked it for months, but now he took it, translated it to English and gave it to Dermer to present it to the Emiratis and the Americans as if it was his own invention,” an Israeli official said.
What to watch: The Biden administration has been pressing Netanyahu for months to seriously discuss a day-after plan, especially as efforts continue to try to reach a hostage and ceasefire deal.
“What we can’t have is an agreement that’s followed by some kind of void that will either be filled by Hamas coming back, by Israel prolonging its occupation or just having a vacuum that’s filled by lawlessness, that’s filled by chaos,” Blinken said on Friday at the Aspen Security Forum.
He added President Biden plans to discuss with Netanyahu during their meeting in Washington this week the need to have a plan in place. A U.S. official said Biden will meet Netanyahu on Thursday.
“We’ve been working every single day – with Arab partners, with Israel, with many others, for governance, for security, for humanitarian assistance, for reconstruction — that’s critical,” Blinken said.
Barak Ravid is a political reporter and Middle East expert for Axios covering foreign policy and the 2024 election
