Martin Pengelly
The Guardian / November 7, 2024
Leon Panetta says he also expects US president-elect to favour letting Russia retain control of areas of Ukraine.
Washington – Donald Trump will as president give Benjamin Netanyahu a “blank check” in the Middle East, possibly opening the way for all-out war between Israel and Iran, the former CIA director and US defense secretary Leon Panetta predicted.
“With regards to the Middle East, I think he’s basically going to give Netanyahu a blank check,” Panetta said of Trump, who won the presidential election this week and will take office again in January.
“‘Whatever you do, whatever you want to do, whoever you want to go after, you have my blessing.’ I mean, he basically said that [before the election].”
The Israeli prime minister has overseen attacks on Iran and its assets as part of a growing conflagration since Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October last year. He and the US president-elect were reported to have spoken during the US election campaign. Netanyahu congratulated Trump on Wednesday, after Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris was confirmed.
Panetta continued: “And so the real question there is whether Netanyahu decides to continue to try to expand that war, go after Iran, or do things that basically create an even greater concern about whether or not the Middle East is ever going to resolve itself or be in constant conflict.”
Speaking on the One Decision podcast, which he co-hosts with Sir Richard Dearlove, a former head of MI6, the British intelligence service, Panetta also said he expected Trump to favour allowing Russia to retain control of areas of Ukraine held since its invasion two years ago.
Most observers think Trump’s election is bad news for Ukraine, which the Biden administration has backed with military aid. Many analysts suggest Trump will be less constrained by advisers than during his first four years in office, free to do as he pleases while in thrall to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president he has long admired.
Panetta, however, said he doubted Trump would be given a free hand.
“That’s going to take some negotiation,” Panetta said, of Russia-Ukraine. “And I would not put Mr Trump in charge of that because, you know, he sat down with [the North Korean dictator] Kim Jong-un for three meetings and wasn’t able to cut a deal.
“And so what I would do is … select somebody with experience, a secretary of state, secretary of defense, and put him to work to try to really develop what would be a fair deal for Ukraine and allow Russia to sign off on the thing as well.
“I think that would be the way to go. But that’s going to take time. It’s going to take a lot of negotiation. It’s going to take a lot of dealing. But that’s the one issue. I think if I were Trump, I would focus on how to resolve the Ukrainian war.”
Now 85, Panetta is vastly experienced, having been a congressman from California (1977-1993), White House budget chief and chief of staff to Bill Clinton (1993-97), and CIA director (2009-11) and secretary of defense (2011-13) under Barack Obama.
Considering Trump’s return, Panetta outlined a challenging foreign policy picture.
“As I’ve often mentioned in the past, we’re living in a very dangerous world. There are a number of flashpoints … whether it’s Russia and Ukraine, whether it’s China and Taiwan, whether it’s the Middle East, whether it’s Iran, whether it’s North Korea, whether it’s terrorism.”
Panetta also had a jab just for Trump.
“Trump basically said during the campaign: ‘Don’t worry about it. I can basically cut a deal and every one of these problems, things are going to be fine.’
“Well, yeah, he could by simply capitulating to tyrants and to adversaries and to autocrats and letting them have their way. But I’m not so sure even his own party, Republicans, are going to be willing to let him simply let tyrants do whatever the hell they want to do.”
Martin Pengelly is a freelance journalist
