‘No red lines’ – this is what we know about Iran’s forthcoming retaliation against Israel

TPC Staff

The Palestine Chronicle  /  August 4, 2024

Hujjat al-Islam Taeb, an advisor to the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, stated on Sunday that the response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh would be unexpected and significant.

The Iranian News Agency (IRNA) also quoted Taeb as saying that the operation to avenge Haniyeh’s death would be unprecedented and surprising.

He reportedly added that the scenario planned to avenge Haniyeh is one that cannot be easily anticipated, and noted that the social situation in Israel is unsettled because they are unaware of Iran’s plans.

The military advisor also mentioned that economic investment in Israel is declining, with capital leaving the region.

Last month, the Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that 46,000 Israeli companies had closed since the outbreak of the war in Gaza on October 7, with projections suggesting the number could rise to 60,000 by the end of the year.

The Revolutionary Guards’ advisor further explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to escalate the operation in Gaza into a regional war involving the United States. He emphasized that the era of American dominance is over and that its policies no longer serve as a deterrent.

While there was no immediate comment from Israel on Taeb’s statements, Israeli officials have previously asserted that they are prepared for any scenario and are developing contingency plans in anticipation of an Iranian military response.

High alert

Israel is bracing for a military response from Iran and Hezbollah, raising its alert level to the highest after Haniyeh’s assassination, which came one day after the killing of Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut.

In response to these events, the United States has been deploying additional warships and fighter jets to protect Israel from potential threats from Iran and its allies, particularly the Lebanese movement Hezbollah.

Amid heightened tensions, many countries have issued advisories for their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately.

‘All red lines’

Earlier on Sunday, an Iranian official told Al-Jazeera that Israel had crossed “all red lines” with the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, and confirmed that Israel had sent mediators to de-escalate the situation.

The source insisted that Israel must face consequences for its actions, stating, “We have no doubt that it will pay a heavy price.”

The official also rejected the notion of Tehran refraining from a response or delivering only a symbolic one, asserting that any retaliation would be “harsh and painful.”

The source also mentioned that after Israel violated Iranian sovereignty, it sent mediators to contain the fallout, but Iran is not considering a response to these overtures.

The Iranian official mentioned the visit of Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, saying that he arrived in Tehran carrying messages from the King of Jordan and the leaders of the United States and Israel.

It was indicated that “Tehran will deliver two messages to Safadi, one for the Jordanian leadership and another for the United States and Israel.”

Meeting with Jordanian minister 

Safadi arrived in Tehran earlier on Sunday to meet with Iranian officials, including Iranian Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani.

After the meeting, Safadi clarified that he was not carrying a message from Israel, stating, “The first step to prevent further tension in the region is to stop Israel’s war against Gaza.”

He added that the purpose of his visit to Tehran was to resolve differences between the two countries transparently, in a way that aligns with their mutual interests.

US-Israeli expectations

Meanwhile, the American website Axios reported expectations from American and Israeli sources that Iran will carry out an attack targeting Israel, possibly starting Monday, coinciding with the visit of an American military commander to the region to rally support for Israel.

Axios reported that American and Israeli officials anticipate that Iran may launch an attack on Israel soon, potentially as early as Monday.

“US officials expect any Iranian retaliation to be from the same playbook as their April 13 attack on Israel — but potentially larger in scope — and it could also involve Hezbollah in Lebanon,” the report said.

According to the website, American and Israeli officials are uncertain whether Iran and Hezbollah will coordinate their attacks or operate independently.

They believe “both Iran and Hezbollah are still working on finalizing their military plans and approving them at the political level,” the report added.

US aircraft carrier

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently announced the deployment of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the eastern Mediterranean and a squadron of F-22 fighter jets to join the aircraft carrier Roosevelt stationed in the Indian Ocean near the Arabian Sea. Several destroyers have also been deployed off the coast of Israel.

Axios quoted an American official as saying that Washington’s decision to bolster its military presence in the region was intended to deter Iran and Hezbollah and influence their military strategies.

Amid the escalating tensions, General Michael Kurilla, who commands US  forces in the Middle East, has begun a visit to several Gulf states, as well as Jordan and Israel.

For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security cabinet meeting on Sunday to assess the situation.

The newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Israeli security and political authorities have intensified consultations with the United States on how to respond to potential attacks and that officials have discussed the possibility of launching a preemptive strike.

The newspaper also noted that ministries have been instructed to prepare for all scenarios, including the possibility of a multi-front war involving thousands of targets.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security cabinet meeting on Sunday to assess the situation.