Sami al-Arian
Middle East Eye / July 31, 2024
As Netanyahu seeks to provoke a wider regional conflict, Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leader will unite Palestinians and their supporters in outrage.
Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran is more evidence that it is an out-of-control, rogue state that considers itself above the law and can do whatever it wants regardless of the consequences.
Killing Haniyeh, the political leader of the leading resistance movement in Palestine, and a high-ranking Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, are dangerous escalations that will likely be met with forceful retaliation by both the Lebanese group and Iran. The latter’s involvement was ensured after Israel’s decision to target Haniyeh in its capital city.
All of this puts the Biden administration, which is politically interested in winding down Israel’s war on Gaza for electoral reasons and has paid lip service to reaching a ceasefire agreement, in a bind. Any pressure on Israel will guarantee the wrath of the influential pro-Israel lobby, while coming to Israel’s aid will necessarily bring it into a wider war.
After the disastrous US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the American public has made it clear that it is not interested in becoming involved in new wars in the Middle East.
But escalating this conflict has been Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan all along, as he made clear in his address to the US Congress last week.
Netanyahu is in trouble, because he’s been unable to achieve his political and military objective of totally defeating, let alone annihilating, Hamas, or dislodging the group from ruling Gaza.
He’s also failed to free Israeli captives through military means, except for a handful, putting further pressure on him domestically.
No end in sight
Ten months into the war on Gaza, there is no end in sight. The Israeli military’s failure is made all the more evident when the result of its campaign is setting records for killing civilians and maiming children with the use of American weapons and support, and the amount of bombs dropped equivalent to five Hiroshimas.
Beyond Gaza, Netanyahu is also unable to contain the other fronts in the war, which have caused tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate in both the north and the south. He has been unable to bring them back because of the military efforts of Hezbollah and the Houthis to end the genocidal war in Gaza.
For the last 10 months, Netanyahu has been trying to restore deterrence, an essential element of Israel’s military doctrine, which was severely undermined by the 7 October attacks. In addition, he is trying to restore the image of Israel’s intelligence apparatus, which also collapsed.
Netanyahu evidently does not want the war to end. If it ends without the “total victory” he has been promising, then there will be an inquiry that could see him held accountable and ousted from power. In addition, he has long been facing serious corruption charges that could lead to his imprisonment. It is thus in Netanyahu’s interest not only to continue the war, but also to widen it.
Furthermore, Netanyahu is clearly backing former President Donald Trump, a staunch ally who gave Israel everything it wanted during his presidency, from moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, to shunning the Palestinian Authority, to assassinating Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, in contravention of international law.
Destabilizing the Middle East, prolonging the onslaught in Gaza and causing uncertainty makes it more likely that Trump’s opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, will be defeated in the November election, as such instability and upheaval usually works against an incumbent administration. Prolonging the war also makes the Biden administration, which has been complicit in Israel’s genocide, look weak and ineffective.
Strategic impact
Haniyeh, a descendent of Nakba survivors who was born and raised in al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza, was a popular leader among Palestinians. He was the prime minister of the elected Hamas government in 2006 and became the group’s political leader in 2017.
Palestinians have repeatedly seen their leaders assassinated by a Zionist regime that has sought their elimination in every way. In 2004, Hamas leaders Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi were assassinated in Gaza within three weeks of each other. Scores of other Palestinian leaders have been targeted for assassination, imprisoned or exiled throughout the decades-long struggle for freedom.
Strategically, Haniyeh’s assassination will not have a significant impact on Hamas, as it is capable of replacing its leaders and has a number of candidates who could take over before elections are held, including Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk and Khalil al-Hayya.
The same could be said for Hezbollah. In 1992, Israel assassinated its secretary general, Abbas al-Musawi, who was replaced by Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah was 31 at the time and not well known, yet he has since become one of the most consequential leaders of Lebanon in modern times.
If there is any doubt that the Zionist regime has no vision for any future that involves Palestinians, let alone sovereignty or a state for them, that is erased with these dangerous escalations.
This regime embodies hegemony, control, ethno-supremacy and apartheid. It seeks ethnic cleansing, aiming to make Palestinians subservient in a Greater Israel enterprise. Netanyahu is trying to put a nail in the coffin of the two-state solution, which the US can no longer hide behind.
This is a moment of truth for all parties involved, particularly in light of the International Court of Justice’s recent advisory opinion condemning Israel’s occupation as illegal. The international order the US has built since World War II is unravelling. All of its rhetoric around the rule of law, democracy and human rights has been totally undermined by Israel as the US enables its genocide.
The Zionist regime’s rogue actions also bolster the International Criminal Court’s allegations of war crimes against Netanyahu and his defence minister, Yoav Gallant.
But Haniyeh’s killing will only enrage and unite Palestinians. He recently called for massive demonstrations on 3 August in protest at the Gaza genocide. With calls for protests and general strikes already underway, his assassination will undoubtedly fuel massive mobilization across the Arab and Muslim world to stop the genocidal war on Gaza and bring Palestinians closer to freedom and liberation.
Sami al-Arian who originates from Palestine is the Director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Istanbul Zaim University
