Juan Cole
Informed Comment / May 10, 2026
Ann Arbor – As the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz continues, both the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the United States continue to attempt to get further leverage over one another.
Frantic that he hasn’t been able to exit the war, Trump muttered this weekend darkly about nuking Iran.
The wild threat underlines how desperate Trump is, as it becomes increasingly apparent that he may be stuck in the Gulf with no good solution for so long that the energy crisis could tank the US economy.
Iran has taken the world’s energy hostage. Relatively little oil or gas is transiting the Strait. Nearly 1 billion barrels of petroleum have been taken off the world market since Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump launched their unprovoked war of aggression on Iran. This shortfall is real and is already producing shortfalls in Asia because its refineries are especially attuned to the grade of petroleum that comes out of the Gulf. But shortages are hitting Africa and Europe as well. US gasoline is up to about $4.50 as a national average, up about $1.50 a gallon since Trump followed the Israelis into the war.
Some of the shortfall was offset since tankers that left in January and February were still on the water, but they have delivered their cargo by now. Some of it is being covered by the release of strategic reserves around the world, but those will have been largely depleted by June, except in the case of China.
Many analysts believe that if the Strait remains closed into June, shortages will cause an even more serious price shock. Iran’s economic is suffering, with high inflation for food and staples, but the government is betting that Iran can take the pain for several more months in a way that Trump cannot, given that midterms are looming and his favourability rating is plummeting in the polls.
In the meantime, it is in the US administration’s interest to break the blockade, even if incrementally. Trump’s announcement last week that he would deploy US destroyers to escort ships out of the Gulf was aimed at eroding Iran’s position. Iran, however, clearly would have gone back to hitting the Arab oil and gas giants on the Gulf littoral in revenge, and Saudi Arabia allegedly read the riot act to Trump over this quixotic initiative, about which he appears not to have informed Riyadh, warning that the Kingdom would not allow US use of its military bases for the operation, forcing Trump to withdraw it.
Another way to get around Iran’s blockade is to ship oil overland. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, but it has limited additional capacity. Likewise the United Arab Emirates has a pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, beyond the Strait of Hormuz. But then Iran attacked the Fujairah oil terminal last Monday, to interfere with this workaround. In any case, the UAE cannot export very much of its petroleum through Fujairah, anyway. Iran was making the symbolic point that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is not the only card it has to play in impeding the flow of oil.
One of the smarter analysts of the crisis, Hamidreza Azizi, wrote at X:
” Iran’s announcement of an expanded control envelope in the Strait of Hormuz – coupled with strikes on oil facilities in Fujairah and strikes on oil tankers – points to a deliberate escalation toward the United Arab Emirates’ oil export bypass routes.
The objective is to keep alternative export channels at risk, sustain elevated oil prices, and block any perception of normalization. In other words, the message is that Donald Trump’s mission in the strait will not be cost-free. Instead, it will generate greater complexity and sustained pressure on the energy market.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Fars News Agency notes the importance of the underwater fibre optic cables that transmit internet data and which have been laid on the bed of the Arabian Sea, through the Gulf of Hormuz, and up the Persian Gulf.
Some 99% of internet traffic goes via undersea cables, and 30% at some point transits the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran cut the cables it would have a dramatic effect on communications and commerce not only in the Gulf but throughout the world. The Fars Science and Advancement News Service points out that if petroleum made the world go round in the 20th century, the internet does in this century.
BBC Monitoring notes that other Iranian news services have suggested that taking out the undersea cables would deal a lethal blow to the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and to hostile neighbours of Iran (possibly they have the UAE in mind; its Dubai finance hub depends deeply on the internet).
These developments are in the way of potential escalation. The war will only end with deescalation, but it isn’t clear that it is on the horizon or that the erratic Trump is capable of negotiating in good faith.
Juan Cole is the founder and chief editor of Informed Comment; he is Richard P. Mitchell Distinguished University Professor in the History Department at the University of Michigan
