Archie Bland
The Guardian / November 3, 2022
The former prime minister is close to winning office less than 18 months after losing it, in Israel’s fifth election in four years. This is how he pulled it off.
Good morning. When Benjamin Netanyahu lost power last June, he insisted he would be back. “With God’s help,” he said in a valedictory speech, “that will happen much sooner than you think.” 16 months later, he looks all but certain to be prime minister of Israel again.
The count of the votes in the country’s fifth election in four years will not be completed until later today, and coalition talks could take weeks to complete. But by the tally so far, Netanyahu’s rightwing Likud party is the largest group in the Knesset – and the broad coalition formed to topple him last year looks likely to be thrown into opposition.
Even though he has faced corruption charges and remains a sharply divisive figure among voters, the return of “King Bibi” as prime minister isn’t exactly a surprise. The really remarkable thing is who looks like getting him there. As he seeks to cobble together a majority in the Knesset, Netanyahu has turned to a new set of allies on the far right of Israeli politics: the Religious Zionist Party, who want to give IDF soldiers immunity from prosecution and deport “disloyal” Palestinian citizens.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s Jerusalem correspondent, Bethan McKernan, about the return of Likud, the rise of the Religious Zionists – and how Bibi helped them get there. Here are the headlines.
In depth: The election that proves Israel ‘still lives in a Netanyahu world’
What happened in the election?
With 88% of votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud had a projected 32 seats in the 120-member Knesset – only a little better than the 30 seats which left them in opposition last year. Yesh Atid, the leading left-wing party, actually improved its position from 17 seats to 24.
The crucial change is the decline of smaller anti-Netanyahu parties, and the success of the Religious Zionist bloc, which appears on course to win 14 seats – eight up on last time, and enough to give Netanyahu a majority.
“Netanyahu has been striking quite a cautious tone,” said Bethan McKernan – admirably lucid after a few hours of sleep. “He’s aware that celebrating too early would be asking for trouble. The mood among Likud members and activists – they’re pretty psyched, but they’re not partying just yet.”
How did Netanyahu force his way back into office?
In the same speech in which he told the Knesset that he would soon be back, Netanyahu vowed to lead “a daily battle against this bad, dangerous, leftwing government to topple it.” He has made good on his word – and was greatly helped by the depth of divisions in a fragile governing coalition which ran from Palestinian parties and the liberal left to religious nationalists disaffected with Netanyahu’s rule.
In this piece from June, Bethan and Quique Kierszenbaum explain how Netanyahu “capitalized on the coalition’s disunity by encouraging the opposition to vote against every bill the coalition proposes, no matter its content, in order to further paralyze his rivals.” Defections destroyed its narrow majority, eventually forcing new elections.
While Bibi was not yet back, Noga Tarnopolsky wrote for the Atlantic Council in June, “it is also true that Israel still lives in a Netanyahu world. Here, political reality is filtered through his lens.” But the election results are also a rejection of a diverse government, incorporating voices from Israel’s Palestinian minority, in favour of a coalition which insists that Israel must be a Jewish state. And it makes the prospect of a two-state solution seem even more distant.
Netanyahu was instrumental to the Religious Zionists’ success, Bethan said. “He made this happen. He persuaded three far right parties to merge last year, with the promise of ministerial positions if they succeeded.” The merger was crucial, because it vastly improved their chances of crossing a 3.25% threshold for Knesset representation.
“Netanyahu doesn’t like them – he’s always preferred a broader spectrum of parties, including centrists, in his coalition,” Bethan said. “But he would form a coalition with anyone if it would keep him in office.” In this analysis published yesterday, Bethan explains how the Religious Zionists could drag Netanyahu further to the right.
If Netanyahu needed any extra motivation, it was provided by the criminal prosecution he faces on corruption charges: the Religious Zionists, and their rising star Itamar Ben-Gvir, have promised support for changes to the legal code which could help him evade conviction. “His personal and professional life were both on the line here,” Bethan said. “He needed to be in office to combat the corruption charges effectively, and he appears to be willing to burn everything down to achieve that.”
Who is Itamar Ben-Gvir?
In a weekend profile of Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose Jewish Strength party is part of the Religious Zionist slate, Bethan explains the toxic politics of the man who is perhaps the greatest beneficiary of Netanyahu’s desire for office. Ben-Gvir (above) has convictions for incitement to racism and supporting an outlawed ultra-nationalist terrorist organization. He reportedly had “a picture of the terrorist Baruch Goldstein [responsible for the massacre of 29 Palestinian Muslims in 1994] in his living room”.
He has toned down the rhetoric since winning a Knesset seat, but still calls for the deportation of “disloyal” Palestinians. Last month he drew a pistol during a confrontation with a group of Palestinian protesters, urging police to shoot them for throwing stones. Other policies include legal immunity for IDF soldiers, and stripping the High Court of the power to strike down unconstitutional laws.
“He’s terrifying, frankly,” said Bethan. “He’s charismatic, he’s cheerful, and he works hard – every time there’s a terrorist attack in Israel, he’s immediately there, broadcasting on social media or saying he will stop it if he’s in government, that he has a gun and he’s not afraid to use it.”
At a rally Bethan attended to report that piece, “there were teenage girls there, saying, ‘Oh my god, he’s so cute!’ He represents a large and growing proportion of the Jewish Israeli population which is intolerant, and is racist.”
She points to August analysis by the Israel Democracy Institute, which found that 62% of Jewish Israelis identify as right-wing – a figure which has risen from 46% in 2019 and is even higher among the 18-24s.
Ben-Gvir’s apparent success, she added, comes against a backdrop of violence in the West Bank and inter-community clashes within Israel. “The West Bank is on fire – it’s not quite a third intifada, but it’s not impossible. It’s a stick rather than a carrot for a lot of people. Voters are wary of what Ben-Gvir stands for, but they’d prefer a coherent right wing government to the mess there is now.”
What happens now?
One key question is which ministries Netanyahu will hand to Ben-Gvir and his allies. “The danger is that he will be held hostage by the demands of the far right,” Bethan said. “Ben-Gvir has said he wants the public security ministry: it would allow him to focus on what he wants, which is training police and security forces to do the things he wants to do.”
For Israeli Palestinians, many of whom feel let down by the collapse of a joint list of the parties which represent them, the success of the Religious Zionists appears cause for grave concern. On Monday, Esawi Frej, Israel’s second Muslim cabinet minister and a member of the secular left-wing Meretz party, which appears likely to win no seats, wrote on Twitter: “The third largest party in the Knesset is a racist … violent party that doesn’t want me or my children here. This is no longer a slippery slope. This is the abyss itself.”
Such concerns, or warnings from Israel’s international partners against Netanyahu working with the Religious Zionists, appear likely to go unheard. “If this is what his voters want, what’s to stop him?” Bethan asked. “The far right do not care what the rest of the world thinks. They couldn’t give a monkey’s about a statement from Joe Biden. What this means for Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Palestinians in general – the violent settlers who were attacking them, those guys are the government now.”
Archie Bland is the editor of the Guardian‘s First Edition newsletter
