Middle East Eye / May 29, 2026
Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, explains why he believes the greatest threat to the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is not the Persian Gulf, but Israel’s potential refusal to fully adhere to the regional ceasefire and halt its bombardment of Lebanon.
Parsi says that, for Tehran, tying Israel to the ceasefire is ultimately a test of America’s willingness — and ability — to restrain its closest regional ally. “If Trump either cannot or will not do so, then the value of any agreement with Washington comes sharply into question,” he argues.
“A ceasefire that leaves Israel free to reignite hostilities at will — while the United States remains unable to prevent itself from being dragged back into conflict — offers little assurance of stability.
Under such circumstances, the utility of a deal with Washington diminishes dramatically.” He also points out that the very fact Tehran is contemplating escalation against the UAE if Israel escalates in Lebanon illustrates the extent to which the Emirates have made themselves needless targets in the broader Israeli-Iranian rivalry by signing the Abraham Accords.
