Ali Vaez
International Crisis Group / April 9, 2025
Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez on U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of U.S.-Iran talks.
President Donald Trump on 7 April announced that the U.S. and Iran will hold talks over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program on Saturday in Oman. That’s good news. For now, Iranian officials maintain the talks will be conducted indirectly – at least initially – not face to face as Trump claimed. Still, the high-level rendezvous is an important opportunity for the two sides to scope out what a diplomatic process might look like.
It will also shed light on how far apart Washington and Tehran’s positions are on two key issues. How flexible is the U.S. on the view expressed by some officials and Israel that Iran must entirely “dismantle” its nuclear infrastructure (an unlikely prospect)? And will negotiations extend to non-nuclear issues such as Iran’s ballistic missiles and its support for its region-wide network of non-state militants?
If the two sides can find enough common ground on the question of the acceptable scale of Iran’s nuclear program and the talks’ scope, they could hold more structured, technical – and direct – discussions.
On the other hand, the perils of a failed diplomatic bid are all too clear. The U.S. has steadily ramped up sanctions on Iran’s already-battered economy and bolstered military deployments to the region – a return to the maximum pressure campaign of Trump’s first term. Given Iran’s highly advanced nuclear program (and weakened regional position), an impasse may lead the U.S. (and/or Israel) to look more favourably at the option of striking facilities than a deal on terms it prefers not to concede. The clock is running, too, on a potential restoration of UN sanctions against Iran by mid-year should progress prove elusive. If the sanctions are restored, Iran will likely respond by taking itself out of the non-proliferation treaty, ending outside monitoring of its program. It’s not clear what the precise trigger for Israeli or U.S. military action would be, but if diplomacy fails, Trump has implied that bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities is the “obvious” option.
Ideally, both sides will show flexibility in setting an agenda and a realistic endgame. If progress is made between now and mid-May, when President Trump will reportedly visit Saudi Arabia, an in-person meeting with his Iranian counterpart on the sidelines of that visit could go a long way to shield this diplomatic process from detractors’ efforts to scupper it.
Ali Vaez – International Crisis Group
