Prem Thakker
Zeteo / Janunary 15, 2025
[via email]
Will it lead to a permanent end to the bombing? Did Trump really make it happen ? Why couldn’t Biden get it done eight months ago ? Here’s what we know.
For the first time in more than 400 days, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached.
Notably, the terms of the deal are largely similar to a proposed agreement President Joe Biden announced over the summer (in the nearly eight months since then, more than 10,000 Palestinians have been killed). Reporting indicates that Donald Trump may have forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into taking the deal, though he may have made promises that would enable Israel’s violence in other ways. It’s also yet to be seen if this will be a vehicle to fully end the war, or simply another short-term pause to get at least some hostages out before continuing the bombing.
What’s in the deal ?
According to Qatar, which helped mediate the deal, the agreement will be implemented in three phases, beginning on Sunday. It will be the first halt to the fighting since the seven-day humanitarian pause last November.
The first phase would involve a 42-day ceasefire, the release of 33 women, children, elderly, and wounded civilian hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails, the surge in humanitarian aid and fuel, and the partial withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from some areas of Gaza. Palestinians will also be allowed to begin to return to what’s left of their neighbourhoods and homes.
The details of the second phase would be discussed at some point during the implementation of phase one. It’s expected to include the release of the rest of the hostages who are alive, including male soldiers, as well as the full withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza. Phase three would include the release of the bodies of hostages who were killed.
The agreement also includes a broad reconstruction plan, which is expected to be overseen by several organizations and countries, including Qatar, Egypt, and the UN.
Notably, the deal does not require the dismantling of Hamas (a militant condition Israeli and US politicians repeatedly said was a must in any “ceasefire” agreement).
Asked whether this deal will be conducive to a permanent ceasefire, the Qatari prime minister told reporters that the implementation “all depends on the parties to the conflict. All must have a genuine will to commit to the agreement.”
Trump the peacemaker ?
Trump immediately took credit for what he called an “EPIC” ceasefire agreement, claiming it “could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November.”
One diplomat familiar with the negotiations reportedly went as far as to say that Trump’s involvement was the “first time there has been real pressure on the Israeli side to accept a deal.” But it may be a little pre-emptive to nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize just yet.
While Haaretz previously reported that Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, did play a pivotal role in forcing the Israeli government to accept the deal, Israeli analyst Zvi Bar’el argues the tiered agreement is all a ruse for the government to retrieve as many hostages as it can before attacking once more. Israeli media has also reported that Trump made several promises to the Israeli government, including that he would support Israel retroactively if it violated the agreement. He didn’t stop there, according to Israel’s Ynet news outlet. Trump also reportedly agreed to remove Israeli settlers and far-right extremists from US sanctions lists.
And, of course, the deal is subject to approval from Netanyahu’s Cabinet (It’s expected to meet Thursday). Even before the deal was announced, Israeli far-right Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called on fellow far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich to threaten to block the implementation of any deal, boasting on Tuesday that his “political power” had repeatedly “managed to prevent” such proposal from going ahead “time and time” again. He admitted, however, that since then, “additional parties have joined the government,” and “we are no longer the decisive factor.”
Biden failure
Biden, of course, lauded his own efforts too. Asked at a press conference who gets the credit, he or Trump, Biden responded: “Is that a joke?”
He also stressed that the agreement was “the exact framework of the deal I proposed back in May.” He admitted, however, that his administration and Trump’s had “been speaking as one team” over recent days.
Trump certainly appears to have had his own leverage, both in his volatility and his allyship with Netanyahu, but Biden and the Democrats had their own power too.
The Biden administration has behaved as if its role was limited. Yet instances like President Ronald Reagan’s call to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, demanding an end to Israel’s bombing of Beirut, come to mind. There’s also the basic reality that the US was unconditionally funding the war itself – it was not some distanced third party.
Despite courts and human rights organizations repeatedly finding that Israel has committed war crimes, Biden repeatedly provided arms and support to Israel in its genocidal war. The US violated its own law by continuing to send weapons and military aid to a nation the US itself admitted likely violated international law with its help.
There is no indication that Biden choosing a different path would’ve hurt him politically (after all, Biden was tanking in the polls, and his successor Kamala Harris, who maintained his same policies, ended up losing). Domestically, poll after poll and mass protests nationwide showed widespread support for conditioning or ending US aid to Israel in order to end the violence. A YouGov poll released Wednesday showed that 29% of 2024 voters who didn’t vote for Harris but did vote for Biden in 2020 said US support for Israel’s genocidal war was the top reason they did not support Harris. Biden’s own ambassador to Israel admitted, perhaps unwittingly, that Biden’s allyship with Israel “contributed to making his challenge for re-election insurmountable.”
Uncertainty abounds
After Israeli forces killed more than 46,000 Palestinians – and very likely tens of thousands more – displaced 2 million people, and damaged nearly 70% of all structures in Gaza, the fate of the Palestinian people is still uncertain. Will Israel just violate the ceasefire and welcome Trump’s apparent support for doing so? Will Israel “withdraw” from Gaza, only to come back, or escalate its ongoing violence in the West Bank? What does returning home look like for Palestinians whose homes, whose neighbourhoods were completely destroyed? Will there be enough global support to address the immense humanitarian crisis and rebuild both in the short and long term? There is still much to monitor.
On one hand, Trump appears to have done what the Biden administration long couldn’t. Yet, there should be no illusion about Israel’s record in honouring such agreements, nor in Trump’s motives for or commitment to one. A ceasefire is not enough if the only output is a destroyed Gaza and an even more brutal occupation of Palestine.
Regardless of what motives led to this or what might happen down the road, there is no disputing that even an hour without bombs falling will make a huge difference to people in Gaza.
Prem Thakker – Zeteo political correspondent & columnist
