Alexandra Sharp
Foreign Policy / October 3, 2024
As Israel’s fight against Hezbollah escalates, so too do its threats against Iran.
Israel ordered residents of more than 20 towns in southern Lebanon on Thursday to immediately evacuate, bringing the total number of towns in the area under such instructions to 70, including the provincial capital of Nabatieh. The Israeli military said its ground incursion, which began on Tuesday, aims to allow tens of thousands of people previously living in northern Israel who have been displaced by Hezbollah attacks to return safely to their homes.
Yet the fight to return displaced persons in one country has sparked mass displacement concerns in another. According to Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, more than 1.2 million people have been displaced in his country by Israeli attacks. This has been the “largest wave of displacement in [Lebanon’s] history,” Mikati said this week. Around 100,000 people have crossed the Lebanese border into Syria—some of whom had initially fled to Lebanon to escape Syria’s devastating civil war.
Nearly 2,000 people have been killed in Lebanon and 9,300 others have been injured since Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel last October, prompting the latter to respond in what soon became a near-daily exchange of cross-border attacks that has continued for the past year. Israel has dramatically escalated its campaign against Hezbollah of late, though, and Lebanese Public Health Minister Firass Abiad said on Thursday that most of those deaths have occurred in recent weeks. On Thursday, the Lebanese army returned fire when Israeli strikes hit a military post in southern Lebanon, killing one solider. This was a rare counterattack for a state that has historically tried to avoid direct conflict with Israel in its fight against Hezbollah.
As Israel celebrated the Jewish high holy day of Rosh Hashanah on Thursday, its military also launched what it called a “precision” strike on a building in central Beirut that allegedly housed a Hezbollah-affiliated health center. This was the first time in the current conflict that an Israeli attack has hit close to the center of Lebanon’s capital. The Israeli military also said it killed 15 Hezbollah militants at a municipality building in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil. And it claimed to have killed Haidar al-Shahabiya, the Hezbollah commander responsible for an attack in July that killed a dozen children in the Israeli-held Golan Heights, the day before.
Meanwhile, foreign leaders are waiting to see how Israel will respond to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Tuesday. Following a phone call with other G-7 leaders on Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden urged Israel to avoid direct attacks on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, saying Israel has “a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion.” On Thursday, he said the White House is “discussing” possible Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, fears of which increased oil prices by more than 4 percent.
This tone differs from Washington’s approach in April, when Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take the win” after Israel successfully countered an Iranian missile and drone attack. Netanyahu, however, remains adamant that Israel must respond to Tehran’s latest operation. “We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks, we will attack them,” he said. Iran’s attack this week was larger than the one in April and hit areas closer to Israel’s population centers.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations warned Israel and its allies on Thursday of what retaliation could look like for the region. “Our response will be solely directed at the aggressor,” it said. “Should any country render assistance to the aggressor, it shall likewise be deemed an accomplice and a legitimate target.”
Alexandra Sharp – the World Brief writer at Foreign Policy
