Nada Maucourant Atallah, Khaled Yacoub Oweis & Mohamad Ali Harisi
The National / August 25, 2024
Source close to the group says the Iran-backed militants were attempting to reinstate deterrence balance.
Hezbollah attacked Israel with hundreds of rockets and drones, and the Israeli army responded with a series of strikes against targets in several Lebanese villages, marking some of the most intense phases of the war that the Iran-backed group started ten months ago in support of its ally Hamas.
But the dramatic scenes of rockets and drones being intercepted in Israel’s skies and the hits against Lebanon appeared to reflect a calculated and controlled attempt by both sides to showcase their deterrence capabilities while steering away from a full-scale war in a Middle East already engulfed by Israel’s devastating war in Gaza.
“Hezbollah’s attack is intended to reinstate the deterrence balance that Israel has been trying to undermine in recent days through its attacks deep inside Lebanon,” a source close to the Iran-backed group told The National.
“Hezbollah, with what it did today, raises the level of the confrontation, but at the same time does not declare an open battle with no rules or limits,” explained the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Lebanese militant group claimed to have targeted 11 Israeli military sites, including a military site near Tel Aviv, with more than 320 Katyusha rockets and drones, as a retaliation for the assassination of its senior commander Fuad Shukr.
The attack was preceded by pre-emptive Israeli strikes, followed by targeted hits on various locations and positions in Lebanon, which Hezbollah said were evacuated in anticipation of the strikes. The Iran-backed group then added in a later statement that its military operation for Sunday was over.
“Israel must understand that Hezbollah is keen not to expand the confrontation,” affirmed the source.
What occurred behind the scenes and led to the controlled actions wasn’t immediately clear.
Earlier this month, political sources in Beirut told The National that Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon have been indirectly offered “incentives” by western envoys to ensure that the retaliation to Israel’s assassination of the group’s senior military commander does not lead to a full-scale war.
‘Saving face’
In recent weeks, diplomatic efforts have intensified in anticipation of retaliation by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel, aiming to ensure that the response does not lead to a major escalation.
Tensions peaked in the region since Iran launched an unprecedented drone and missile barrage against Israel in April in a retaliatory strike to an attack on its Damascus consular section. Two senior generals were killed in the strike, which Tehran blamed on Israel.
An Arab security official told The National that the Israeli and Hezbollah strikes on Sunday were clearly designed to avoid a full-scale war. The official pointed out that the deepest targets of Hezbollah rockets were about 100 kilometres inside Israel and that the group avoided Israeli civilian targets as well as a “spectacular” hit by reaching Tel Aviv.
“It is a more intense Hezbollah attack than usual, but still aimed at saving face and remaining within the same calibrated cycle,” he said.
Shukr and an Iranian military associate were killed in an Israeli strike on a densely populated neighbourhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs last month. Hours later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah warned that the “red lines” crossed by Israel will usher in a “new phase” of the multi-front conflict that will make Israel “weep”.
The two killings marked an escalation with major repercussions for the Middle East in general and the Gaza ceasefire talks in particular. Israel, Iran and Hamas rushed to affirm that they are not seeking a wider war, but the vows of retaliation against Israel suggested a fiercer cycle of violence in parts of the region, particularly as efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza have remained unsuccessful.
The Israeli Ministry of Defence declared a state of emergency across the entire territory of Israel for 48 hours after Hezbollah’s attacks and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli army has “destroyed thousands of rockets” and that “what happened today is not the end of the story”.
“For Hezbollah, too, this isn’t the end, and the Israelis should expect high-level attacks in the future,” warned the source close to Hezbollah.
However, despite the dramatic scenes, a western diplomatic source said that Hezbollah’s attempt to re-establish deterrence appears to have failed with the interception of the rockets and drones, potentially paving the way for further escalation in the long run.
“Of course, Hezbollah will adopt a narrative of victory, but it doesn’t align with the reality on the ground,” the diplomatic source added.
On Sunday evening, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denied in a speech that Israel managed to thwart his group’s attack, insisting that a significant number of drones and rockets reached their military targets. He added that his group will assess the attack’s impact and decide later if a bigger retaliation is needed.
“At this stage, our country can breath and relax,” he said.
Nada Maucourant Atallah is a correspondent at The National‘s Beirut bureau
Khaled Yacoub Oweis – Jordan Correspondent, Amman
Mohamad Ali Harisi – Foreign Editor, Jakarta
